Where will we be in five years?

I was at a conference recently where they asked people in the industry to talk about trends they're seeing in publishing. Specifically, they wanted to know what changes we should expect to see in the next five years. My list...

1. You will own an electronic reader. It may be a Kindle (the Amazon.com tool that works on cell phone service, so that books show up on your clipboard-like device like a text message), or the Sony Reader (a better device to use, in my opinion, since it feels more like a book and you can easily download your own files without sending them off or paying Amazon to do it), or some cheap $99 knock-off device that we'll start seeing in the next year. But you WILL own one. Why? No more forty-pound sack of books to carry around. A thousand books on one device. If you get bored with one, you can skip to another. No losing a book ever again, since the companies who sold you the title will replace it for free. You remember when you thought you could get by without a cell phone, iPod, DVD player, Blackberry, GPS, and laptop? Well, you now own most of those. You'll soon recognize the value of an electronic reader and you'll buy one.

2. The web will replace your book show and your book catalog. The big book shows are dying -- too expensive and not enough return to keep going. They'll be replaced with smarter, more cost-effective company events or web-based specialty events. And publishers will soon buy into the green movement by doing away with printed book catalogs and going to web-based catalogs that are always accessible and easy to correct and update.

3. Publishers will soon scrap their print-based semi-annual royalty statements to authors and agents, and will replace them with electronic statements. This makes too much sense. It could be done today, frankly, if publishers wanted to spend the time to make the change. The only thing keeping your publishing house from moving to an email version of your royalty statement is that it doesn't want to be bothered changing the system in light of all the other financial struggles it is facing. But within five years, they'll all have gone to electronic royalty statements.

4. The concept of convergence will jump from newspapers and magazines to books. We live in an image-driven culture, so it's only natural that the convergence of words and images will come to the world of books. On an electronic book screen, we can expect interactive features, downloadable extras, video clips, author interviews, and all sorts of other images to enhance the text. (Think of the newspapers they sell in the Harry Potter movies, with moving images and dynamic graphics -- that's exactly the type of book we'll see in the near future.)

5. A new role will be established within publishing houses. All those images and special features will mean a new role must be established to create and manage the convergence of words and images. We can expect "creative content editors" to become a regular part of every editorial staff. These indviduals will have experience with words as well as images and the interactive aspects marketing.

6. The new products will mean new companies. It may sound crazy in this lousy economic time to predict a spate of new companies being formed... but I think the new technology will make it imperative. One thing that has always been clear is that new breakthroughs in technology (and I believe the electronic reader is a wonderful breakthrough) means new companies to create cutting-edge applications. I think we'll see new companies rise up to compete with the big New York houses when it comes to e-books.

7. A writing superstar will self-publish a book (and make a killing). Again, I think this is inevitable. There is too much money at stake for a celebrity writer to leave it on the table by remaining with a regular royalty-paying publisher. I believe one of the big writers of our era will decide to self-publish, either digitally or in a print-on-demand format, and he or she will sell a boatload of books. (For those not in the know, you can make MORE money at self-publishing, if you have the ability to sell your book. The reason most self-pubbed authors lose money is because they don't know how to sell their book.)

8. Our culture's fascination with short messages on Facebook and Twitter will mean a renewed interest in short stories. Okay, this may not happen... but I can dream. Short stories are my favorite form of literature, and they are almost impossible to sell in book form these days. But perhaps the next generations' interest in all things short will mean a renewed interest in short stories.

9. The next big fight for will be over electronic rights. We're already seeing that with the Google lawsuit, and the fight over Amazon's plan to have all Kindle books include an audio function. Doesn't an author lose a sale if audio rights are wrapped up in a print book? If a magazine publishes your article, rights revert back to you when the copy comes off store shelves -- but if an e-zine keeps your article in its files forever, when do those rights return? If a book publisher keeps a digital version of your book available, will that constitute the book being "in print"? (For the record, I think this will be resolved by using a combination of term agreements and sales thresholds -- i.e., your book will be considered 'in print' so long as the publisher sells 500 digital copies per calendar year.)

10. Publishers and authors will learn to balance the public's desire for content with its demand for all things free. Right now it's easy to get yourself in print -- any moron can start a blog. The hard part is getting paid for your writing. Consumers seem to think that anything coming over the internet should be free. This attitude is helping to kill newspapers, who have moved to the web but found it impossible to make money while doing so. Book publishers are finding this same attitude, and it has the potential to damage book sales (just as Napster and its evil children ruined the music business). But they'll work it out, and find a way to provide content that is free while still selling the words that provides a living for writers. I don't know what that solution will be yet, but I know it will come because necessity will require it. We're a culture that needs (and values) its writers, so we'll find a way to help them make a living.

My thoughts on five years from now. Check back in 2014 and tell me if I was right.

Comments

[Janet]

In light of #7, do you think publishers will try to do more to sell their authors?

You left out POD, especially the Espresso Book Machine. I think it could dramatically reconfigure the industry too. A lot of people are going to still want paper books, and the allure of walking into a store, ordering a book and getting it literally hot off the presses within five minutes at a competitive price could revolutionize bookstores. And then how would you define "out of print"? Or even a publisher? I think publishers are going to have to aggressively market themselves as adding value in terms of curating, editing, formatting, and marketing. Actual printing and distribution could be almost entirely lifted from their hands, except in the case of megasellers, in which case a print run would be economically viable.

For me, as an author, I still want to get picked up by a publishing house. I want the credibility, I want the editing, and I want the marketing. If they're going to hand me off to an over-worked editor who is doing the job of three people, and expect me to do all my own marketing, what's in it for me? Only the credibility. Is it enough? Are we going to see a world where publishers are going to have to woo authors more aggressively? (I can dream, can't I?)

[Karen Robbins]

Your post reminds me of the college professor who told our photography class that in the future pictures would be developed on a computer rather than in a dark room. I think that was only about five to ten years before the digital camera became really popular.

I love my Sony reader!

[Buffy Andrews]

I can see you've given this a great deal of thought. As a newspaper editor, I can relate to a lot of what you've said. I think your comment about short stories is interesting. I think younger readers (9-12) want shorter books. We are competing for their time along with gaming systems, computers, etc. They don't want to read a book that's going to require a huge investment of time. Sad, but true. They want books that hook them and keep moving so they can get onto the next thing. Too often I think folks look for a certain word limit in a manuscript. What's wrong with telling the story and however long it is, it is? Am I making sense? Anyway, you have a lot of good thoughts, and I appreciate them.

[Lynn Rush]

Oh boy. I better start saving up for a Sony Reader....I've been resisting . . . But I think you're right.

Great post, I'm interested to see what comes true.... :-)

[Kristen Bissontz]

"Right now it's easy to get yourself in print -- any moron can start a blog."

I was going to take offense to this (www.teamatworkcoaching.blogspot.com/) but then I realized YOU have a blog too...(but then again, you are already published and I'm just getting started!)

Regards-Not Just Any Moron (aka Kristen Bissontz)

[Jennifer King]

My boys say you are really cool for projecting the Harry Potter newspapers as a publishing concept for the future. I completely agree, and see books becoming interactive, loaded with links and video, and Publishers adding the content value via those new cutting-edge applications, and selling more directly to customers. Books as a combination of interactive links via an advanced e-reader really will be cool. Thanks for going out on the edge to give us your read on things. Certainly change is in the future, and will take a paradigm shift, but I'm looking forward to the changes ... -Jennifer

[Pam Halter]

Buffy said kids ages 9-12 want shorter books. Not in my area of the country! The bigger the book, the more the kids like it. They like hauling a big, thick book around and when other kids admire them for reading such a big book, it strokes their ego.

It's us adults who know it's way better to have less to carry. :)

pam, who joined the ranks of blogging morons 3 weeks ago ...

[Susan Edwards]

Excellent post. As an employee of one of the earliest e-publishers, I'm thrilled to see ebooks finally gaining the attention of the book world. We knew it would happen eventually. We are already doing many of the things you mention. Downsizing our presence at BEA and other book shows, doing our first convention this year for our readers & authors, giving away some free content, developing shorter reads, and working on combating book pirate sites, which are popping up everywhere and stealing content with impunity and an unnervingly cavalier attitude.

[Gerhi Janse van Vuuren]

As to short stories. If you dig into searches done for various types of short stories you will find there is already a significant online demand for it, and a number of websites that cater for this.

The problem still is not the demand for short stories but how to ensure the writers get paid for what they are writing.

[Lauren Sylvan]

Pardon me for being a pessimist, but I've been in an industry where the supply exceeded the demand, and the excess product kept piling up because the producers had other reasons for putting in the time and money -- the hope of fame, affirmation, nothing else to do, and/or they enjoyed the process enough that they were fine with losing money to maintain the lifestyle.

What happens then is that only those who are willing to pay get to play. And some of those are very good, by the way.

As to the reason most self-published books don't sell, it isn't just marketing -- although that can be a big factor. It's because most are simply awful. A few are excellent. And the same can be said of what publishing houses have been offering the reading public, although perhaps not quite so unfiltered in the awfulness category. But with the competition for reader's attention increasing every passing week, only the suberb -- or the precisely targeted -- are going to get a share of mind.
That doesn't mean anybody will pay for it, tho. Nobody buys a cow when the milk can be had for free.

You forgot to mention the demise of the bookstore. An espresso book machine can fit in you local coffee shop.

Okay, done with the gloom and doom. Shoot me now.

[Kristina Seleshanko]

I also think publishers will have to be more monetarily generous with authors, especially if they expect us to continue to do most of the marketing work. Or is that just wishful thinking? :D

[Sandi]

So, Borders sent me a coupon to get a Sony Reader for $100 off. I'm now the proud owner of a Sony Reader. :-)

Now I just have to figure out how to use the thing. Wish me luck!

[BelieversPress]

#1- I think we'll see smart phones taking the majority of this market -- iPhones are already one of the major eBook platforms now that there is a Kindle app and with the gPhones and Palm Pre, the competition is heating up.

#7- Why would a big name take back their profits from the publisher, and hand them over to a POD printer? If you can move books, doing a run of a few thousand can significantly reduce your unit price (and thus your profits).

[BelieversPress]

Oops, I meant reduce your unit cost and increase your profits ;-)

[chip responds]

You asked, "Why would a big name take back their profits from the publisher and hand it over to a POD printer?" That's a misconception. The big name would do it in order to get books cheaper, own their work outright, and keep all the money (100% minus hard costs, instead of the 15% the publisher will pay). It's going to happen, in my view. -Chip

[BelieversPress]

Chip, we're in total agreement!

I was just wondering why you mentioned e-publishing/POD when being a big name/established author means you can move books (and thus can justify a decent print run).

It'll be interesting to see who does it first and how they go about it.

Glenn Becks' recent lower advance, higher royalty deal is indicative of the growing power of 'the author with an audience' to control the profit shared with the publisher. Soon, someone will figure out they can do it all themselves... and still have a top quality product.

After all, the author is the brand, not the publisher, right?

[ThadMcIlroy]

I think you make some excellent points here, but I take exception with #1, "You will own an electronic reader." You clearly mean a device dedicated to reading, separate from other functionality, and that's where I disagree.

I run a web site devoted exclusively to the future of publishing in all its forms, and have been studying this question for several years now. In my section, The Laws of the Future of Publishing (http://thefutureofpublishing.com/pages/the_laws_of_the_future_of_publishing.html) law #19 reads:

"There is a limit to the number of separate digital devices people want to carry. That limit is one."

We can see that the cellphone is morphing into a small computer (the iPhone), while the small computers, netbooks, are reaching price points and sizes similar to iPhones. The president of Acer, the largest manufacturer of netbooks admitted in a recent interview that they are doing the research to enable this convergence.

As display technology improves, there will simply be no reason to have a dedicated eReader.

[chip responds]

Well, I don't agree, Thad. I think we like books, and these allow us to keep a library in our hands. An iPhone is great, but I'm not sure the screen will make readers happy. We own cel phones, GPS devices, iPods, tv remotes, etc. An e-reader is one more.

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[used computers]

Its something different to me. On an electronic book screen, we can expect interactive features, downloadable extras, video clips, author interviews, and all sorts of other images to enhance the text.