Will E-books Kill the Printed Page?

Benjamin wrote to ask, "What's your perspective on all the new e-readers?"

History has taught us that as new technologies are developed, the culture adapts to them. We used to walk across the room to change TV channels. We used to stop and find a pay phone to call home. We used to re-type each page of a manuscript that had error. But we've adapted our lives to adjust to remote controls, cel phones, and PC's. (And, of course, the advent of TV's, telephones, and typewriters were cutting-edge technologies in their own days -- each requiring adaptation from radios, telegraphs, and handwritten notes, respectively.) Right now we're moving from printed materials to digital materials, and that's creating a lot of change for people. My son will read a book on his cel phone -- that's about all anyone needs to know regarding the future of digital technology. All those extant great books and words? They're all out there, ready to be interpreted through a new medium.  So you know what that means? If you don't own one yet, YOU are going to own an e-reader very soon. 

Michaela asked, "Will e-books kill printed books in the long run?' 

I don't honestly know about "the long run." But we've been living with books for roughly 500 years, and it's hard to see that changing. But sure, there are some rough waters ahead as we go through this change. Technology may be killing the cookbook. (Think about it -- the last time you needed a recipe, did you go to a cookbook? Or did you simply go online and do a quick search for the ingredients?) Technology may be killing the do-it-yourself manual. (If you need help with a new software program, do you want to drive to Borders to buy a copy, or look for your solution immediately online for free?) It's clear that technology is changing the way we view books and written content. The Kindle was great because of the wireless ability to download books. The Sony Reader was nice because of the workability for those of us in the industry who want to read Word docs. The Nook is better than both, in terms of handling and use. And I think the iPad may outdo all of them because of the flexibility it offers (and no, I do NOT understand why Apple isn't touting the iPad as the future of ebook readers... THAT'S it's best strength). So, in my view, everyone who is reading this will own a digital reader in the next two or three years. And yeah, you can tell me how much you like the tactile feel of pages, the acrid scent of ink in a real book, etc. I like those too. But change happens, and we adapt. 

So the question that seems to be discussed most is usually posed in a fearful manner: "Will ebooks lead to the death of the printed book?" And my answer remains, "Not in my lifetime." We've got a very rich history with printed books, and I don't see them all disappearing any time soon. It'll lead to change, sure -- in fact, we're already seeing that change. And change seems to be happening faster than it used to, so the speed with which we change to a digital book world is faster than when the culture was asked to adopt the automobile or the telephone. Still, there is no lack of interest in books. In fact, the world is becoming more literate, not less so (some readers will remember just a couple decades ago when the government was doing a report entitled "Why Johnny Can't Read" -- nobody is much concerned with that issue today, since we read all the time). The concern for those of us who work in the industry (writers, editors, agents, publishers, booksellers) is more of distribution than creation. 

 We KNOW there's a readership. We KNOW people want material to read. What we're trying to figure out is how we can monetize it so that the creators can still make a living, and how the people who polish, market, and sell it can still make a living. That's the area everyone is really trying to figure out. It's changing considerably right now, and we have yet to arrive at that next stage where we've all determined who is making money, how they're making it, and what they're making. 

Janet wrote to ask, "Is it true you wore a kilt to the ACFW banquet?"

It's true. I was raised with a Scottish heritage, Janet, so a dress kilt (Prince Charlie jacket, dress sporran, Ghillie brogues, the whole schlamozzle) is part of dressing up for a formal event. 

By the way, my friend Keri Kent sent me this fabulous piece of advice -- it PROVES men who wear kilts are heretics:

http://www.dividedbytruth.org/BD/kilts.htm

And this is fun -- we were cited in the Publishers Weekly report on that convention -- complete with a photo of an author we represent, double-Carol Award winner Jenny B Jones:

http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/book-news/religion/article/44625-crowded-conference-for-christian-fiction-writers-.html?utm_source=Publishers+Weekly%27s+Religion+BookLine&utm_campaign=1d273a3606-UA-15906914-1&utm_medium=email

 

Comments

[Jason Matthews]

I'm not so sure. I think you really have to let go of any personal desire for paper's survival to analyze this situation properly. It seems clear that certain paper literature will die sooner than others. Newspapers are very likely to go extinct within a decade while the printed book would probably be the last to do so and may always exist. What's the reason it would exist forever? The smell and feel of the paper? I doubt it.

[Brandt Dodson]

I was in New York recently and had a great conversation on this topic with the president of a major Publishing house. She stated that the percentage of their Ebook sales had increased by 100% over the last five years and that her house anticipated that Ebooks would account for 50% of their sales within the next 10 years. This will have a major impact since this particular house is very well known and carries several large imprints.

Of course, this still means that books will be read. On the other hand, it could damage or eliminate brick and mortar stores. The manager of my local B&N expressed this concern to me.

Change is the one constant in life.

[Linda M Au]

Dude, Kindles handle Word docs just fine. I send myself my own Word docs all the time. No misinformation, please. :)

BTW, my first-generation Kindle (you know, the one you call the ugly plastic toy) is still going strong after two years. I adore it and use it every day. But I still buy print books too. The only trouble is that three of my favorite Barnes & Noble stores have closed in the past year. Browsing for books will get more difficult...

[Rev Ed Hird]

Thanks, Chip, for your reflections on the 'death' of the paper book by a thousand cuts....

Your discussion about the impact of the e-reader on paper books reminds me of the impact of the Gutenberg printing press on the previous dominance of manuscript hand-printed books. Most of us (myself included) still have an emotional attachment to paper books. But as Chip puts it, change is only accelerating.

I recently purchased an IPhone 4 which has an e-reader built in. My hunch is that our new multipurpose phones will be another Gutenberg turning point. I am unsure how the IPhone and IPad (or equivalents) will ultimately interface, compete, or complement each other. The size of the IPad is both helpful for reading, but more difficult for easy portability. I read recently that the laptop market has been devastated by the IPads.

As a final thought on the new Gutenberg revolution, I quote a most readable 2010 book "The Book in the Renaissance" by Dr Andrew Pettegree (Yale Press): "...a dyspeptic Benedictine Filippo de Strata (complained that) the flood of cheap [non-manuscript] books was corrupting morals. The printers themselves were uncultured men. The refined scribe recoiled from his beloved books now being produced by ink-stained artisans, rootless servants and drunken foreigners. The only good thing that could be said for print was these guzzling workmen had at least increased the income from wine tax." ;)

In the Word,

Ed Hird+

[Hillary Lodge]

I keep going back and forth over the printed book vs. ebook issue.

I love printed books...I don't love moving printed books...I like the idea of having dozens of books in one, easy to move electronic...I don't like the idea of having yet another device to charge.

Bigger question - what about book signing events? Can authors digitally sign with a stylus (and have it look better than on the FedEx screen?)

Thanks for posting the kilt link. That was delightful.

[chip]

Dudette (or Linda) - Kindles don't handle Word docs just fine. I mean, you can do it, but you had to send the doc's to amazon -- which is why the publishers all started using Sony Readers instead of Kindles. But yeah, now you can read pretty much anything on them. When they first came out they did look like ugly plastic toys, though that's the pattern with electronics. Now it's a great tool.

And Rev Ed -- thanks for the good words. -chip

[Brian T. Carroll]

I don't know, Chip. I think the point of the song was that Davey Crockett was highly masculine when "he kilt him a bear, when he was only three." I'm thinking Crockett must have had it on him before he spread that skirt over the bear.

[sally apokedak]

A couple of days ago, Merrie Destefano's debut novel, Resurrection, came out in both mass market pb and kindle edition. Both are selling for 7.99. ( http://www.amazon.com/Afterlife-Resurrection-Chronicles-Merrie-Destefano/dp/0061990817 ) I downloaded it on my kindle (great book, btw--beautiful writing and gripping plot) and was perfectly happy to pay for it. I can see how the Internet is killing some nonfiction but I don't think it will ever kill fiction. You get what you pay for. You can get stories for free all over the place, but if you want a good story.... So, maybe the printers will be hurt, but won't we always need writers and agents and editors/publishers?

Um...that kilt thing...I thought it was a joke until I went to the guy's homepage. That's too sad for me to laugh about it. Yikes!

[sally apokedak]

Duh! Merrie's book is Afterlife, not Resurrection.

Great book even though I forget the name of it.

And the point I was trying to make about the book was that I was happy to pay full price for it and I would think publishers would be happy to get full price for e-books that cost them less to produce. I think e-books should be great for publishers and writers.

[Britt Mitchell]

I'm coming in on this late, but I do love book covers. I'd miss seeing those lined up on shelves. Silly, I know.