What will REALLY happen in 2012?

I've been reading a bunch of "2012 Prediction" posts from people, ranging from the insipid ("We're going to see a lot of growth in e-books") to the inane ("I see a huge comeback for westerns"). So if we leave aside the obvious stuff, and throw out the silly predictions, what is likely to happen this year? Here's my best shot at making predictions for publishing in 2012...

1. The Nook is going to prove wildly popular. I have one, and I love it. The Kindle Fire has too many problems. Realistically, somebody at Google or Facebook, or maybe the Kobe people, will try to horn in on the e-reader market, so we could all be surprised by some cool new device. But Barnes & Noble's Nook is the class of the line right now.

2. And that means Barnes & Noble will figure out a way to integrate Nook purchases to brick-and-mortar stores. Let's face it: book shopping at B&N is FAR superior to meandering around Amazon. The problem has been figuring out how to monetize that for the store. I think this is the year B&N figures it out, and takes back a bigger chunk of the e-book market.

3. Additionally, that means B&N and other bookstores become game stores, puzzle centers, curriculum markets, and educational supply houses. It's already happening, and you'll see a huge shift in 2012. 

4. To keep up, Amazon will not just start their own publishing lines, but will buy some publishing houses. I figure it's inevitable. 

5. Specifically, I think Amazon starts its own CBA imprint. There's too much money in religious books to not do this. 

6. The price of e-books will go up. I've done the math, and I can't see publishers keeping a rock-bottom price on e-books. That probably means the reading culture shifts into two broad groups -- amateurs and start-ups selling very cheap e-books, and traditional publishers charging more for quality e-books. 

7. Social networking will merge their technology with e-books. There's already been rumors of a Facebook reader. And take a look at what ReThink Books is doing -- creating a tool where everyone in a reading group can read and comment on a shared document. 

8. Enhanced e-books still won't appeal to the masses. For all the talk about the features, most people still want to READ a book, not have charts pop up and sing to them to a video background in the midst of a chapter. I could be wrong here, but it seems like it's just one too many features. 

9. Short stories will continue their comeback in a big way. People reading books on iPhones or on a device while using an elliptical prefer short pieces -- meaning renewed interest in this favorite category of mine. 

10. I'll continue to get yelled at for popping the bubbles of all those dreamers who claim you're going to make millions by self-publishing. Hey... don't start. I've self-published, and made money, so I know something about the business. I'm not against self-pubbed books. But I've come to hate the dopey over-promising of those who do it, sell 50 copies, and claim they're a success. The fact is, there are certainly people making money at self-publishing... but, like every other business in America, for every one of those making money, there are 100 who try it and make peanuts. And there are still far too many crappy self-pubbed books -- meaning there is still room for a well-written, well-edited manuscript produced and sold by a traditional publishing house. (Let the yelling begin.) 

Comments

[kay shostak]

Love the B&N prediction. Good insight that rings true. Glad you're back blogging.

[Toni Morrow Wyatt]

I have a Nook tablet and I think it's great. So easy to use. The only problem is that I used up my gift card in less than 10 minutes. Totally agree.

[Richard Mabry]

Chip, I've made a note to check out your prophecies at the end of this year. Expect a phone call the evening of December 31.
Meanwhile, thanks for providing both wisdom and entertainment. Happy new year.

[Bonnie Doran]

Thanks for the insight on publishing for 2012. I promise I won't yell.

[Anne Love]

I was at B & N on December 30th, and again on January 2nd. The transformation was amazing--the entire help desk section in the center is now a Nook center. There literally was no one to ask for help unless you went to the Nook center. I guess that's the message--you can't get around Nook this year at B & N!

[Chip]

I own't be around on Dec 31, Richard.... the world is coming to an end. Haven't you heard? It's all there in the Mayan prophecies -- first the Nook, then self-publishing, and those herald the end of the world...

[Scott Appleton]

Actually, BN has already integrated an awesome idea at some of its major locations. Rather than simply having a Nook counter and sales associate, some locations have a techy Nook sales section. Four foot tall lcd tvs are set up to look like giant nooks, and contantly scroll through Nook advertising. This is also located at the heart of the store, and physical books with Nook counterparts are prominently displayed. I have said for a while that BN is marketing smart and can compete against Amazon.

[Katie Ganshert]

No yelling here! I love these predictions!

[Linda Apple]

Great piece, Chip. I feel you are right on the money. Thanks for the "heads up."

[Jennifer Fromke]

I'd love for you to expound upon the short story prediction. Are you talking more anthologies? More e-book shorts? How are they making a come back now, and would you please discuss how to get our short stories out there?

[David]

Noteworthy predictions. We'll have to see how they play out.
I think the electronic readers will eventually make print books a sub-market, but that will only happen as our older population matures and dies off.
I still much prefer hard backs as the print is larger and the feel is different. But then, I'm among that aging population -:)

[Heather Marsten]

I agree with every one of your predictions. I still am not convinced about e-readers. I prefer holding the book I'm reading. We got my daughter a Kindle Fire and she loves it, but I caught her reading one of the books from her shelves (LOL). I think the prices of e-books will go up. I am also distressed by the multitude of self-published books. It is tempting, but many have not been properly edited and could be improved if the author took the time to do so. I pray you have a wonderful New Year. Heather

[Linda Louise Rigsbee]

I'm 62 - is that part of the aging population? lol I'm glad you wrote this and people commented. I want a reader and have been laboring over which one. I'm not enamored by the Kindle either. Nook. Hmm I like your B&N predictions and I agree there are too many crappy self-published books out there cluttering up the market. I hope sure mine aren't among them! lol Great blog, Chip.

[Tom M. Franklin]

This posting is yet another reason I am so very glad you've returned to blogging!

-- Tom

[Teresa L Watts]

I agree with all of your predictions.
I LOVE Barnes & Noble. I call it my Barney's. I would drive past a Borders to get to B&N. I have a Nook and I'm very happy with it and I have the OLD one! I read both paper and digital. I write historical fiction and to have the ability to download and read archived documents and written works from the 1800s is very helpful in my research. I enjoy that I can do it without sitting in front of the computer.
I see the price increase of e-books coming. They have done the tease marketing of how easy it is, and wonderful and now it's time to pay for such a luxury.
As for Self pub vs. Traditional. They both work sometimes better than the other. There are some really great books that are doing well and are well done by self published authors. My friend opted to self publish not for lack of trying the traditional route, no one wanted to take the risk. For her it was a risk worth taking.The result, it is her full time job, speaking, book signings, radio interviews, and international sales. The book is currently in talks to be adapted into a movie.
Just because a book is published traditional, doesn't make it great. Sometimes a see a book on the shelf and see one of the Big 6 as the publisher and I think "Really? This book and the story are horrible." It's all on someone's opinion at that moment. That is what it all boils down to.
I really enjoy Westerns, Lonesome Dove is my all time favorite.
People always turn their nose up to self-pub when in reality a majority of great authors/books of all time were self published at some point, William Blake, Virginia Woolf, Walt Whitman, William Morris, and James Joyce,Oscar Wilde, Christopher Paolini and more. I may be wrong but hasn't self publishing been around longer than traditional? Oh and what is that widely used style book - Strunk & White also self pub?
Since the attention span of society today is 5 seconds, I think short stories will become more popular again.

As always thank you for a great post.
Have a happy and blessed New Year.

[Caroline Gerardo]

Barnes and Noble will employ the following strategies:
The nook store space will go from 10% to 15%
The nook kiosk will include live video chats with authors nationwide. These can be sold and given away as DVD to readers. B&N will add indie authoer genre author websites that will be included on some large screen instore. B&N will close more stores (fine tuning locations and renegotiating leases to small floor plans)
B & N's website needs to be thrown out with the bathwater, and they know it. They will open four sub websites maybe 5 - Christian, Children's, Children's Interactive, Games, Genre, to hold them over. They need to hire a creative team plus some MIT RIT computer genius(ES) to rewire the HTML5 for the whole website to make subject searches work.

3000 new small press and tiny press companies will emerge. The tiny press ones will only produce ebooks on a showstring budget. Those with a million dollars of start u costs and amazing marketing tools will survive the pack down to 100 by year end. Authors who sign exclusive with someone who goes defunct will have a mess to fight in court to get copyrights returned.
Amazon will grow market share and dominate.

Big Six publishers will become Big Four

I will buy 280+ hardbacks and paperbacks in 2012.
Caroline Gerardo
Author, Poet

[Noel]

I don't think so ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2012/01/05/barnes-noble-cuts-forecast-considers-e-reader-spinoff/

[Chip]

All that says is that B&N has considered spinning off Nook because it's done so well. No proof it will happen -- they could also simply account for it separately, as B&N does with their college textbook stores.

Hey, appreciate the predictions, everyone. Love your Nook ideas, Caroline. Not sure I see the Big Six becoming the Big Four... who goes away?

And Theresa, yes, there have certainly been self-pubbed authors who made it big. Nobody is turning their nose up (though I think you could use better author examples with current authors). My point is that there will be roughly 200,000 new self-published books this year... and only a very small percentage will make the authors money. I'm not down on self-pubbing -- I'm just tired of seeing people talk about it as a money-machine. That's on a par with people who "invested" in rare Beanie Babies... a few might be worth something, but most are worth a buck, or were just donated to the toy drive.

[Sally Jadlow]

Speaking from expierence, my Nook and Kindle sales for "God's Little Miracle Book" and "God's Little Miracle Book II" far outstrip the printed versions.
I don't have a Nook or Kindle. I just download the apps from Amazon and B & N on to my computer and read away on my laptop.
Nook, for me outsells Kindle.

[Peter DeHaan]

Gee, my new Kindle Fire just arrived yesterday...

[Linda M Au]

Chip, I have to be the lone voice of dissent about your Nook/Kindle predictions. Why? Because you're comparing apples to oranges. The Nook Color and Kindle Fire are being marketed as tablets, and that's what they are. I own a Kindle Fire-- and I bought it as a tablet, not an e-reader. I own separate Kindles and a Nook (e-ink) for reading. E-ink and backlit color screens are entirely different animals. I don't read on my Kindle Fire -- the backlight is as bad for my eyes after a while as a computer screen. The e-ink of the Kindle Touch (or the first-gen Kindle I've had for years, despite its being a child's toy, according to you) is far superior for dedicated reading, and the battery life is phenomenal compared to the Nook or Kindle tablets.

And, Amazon's Kindle Direct Publishing has made every writer wannabe a published author. There are scads of self-pubbed books, short stories, novellas on Amazon's platform now, because Amazon goes out of its way to make it an easy process.

Also, I've dealt with Amazon's customer service, as well as B&N's customer service. And, despite the fact that I adore browsing in B&N stores (almost as much fun as office supply stores), I must say that Amazon's CS is vastly superior. They do whatever they have to, to keep the customer happy. B&N's support has been a joke in comparison.

I think Bezos and Amazon are better at thinking two and three steps ahead of the curve, while B&N tends to be more reactionary, playing catch-up with industry changes more often than not.

[modchip]

Great predictions. I guess nothing will change anyway, but lets see :-)