Chip MacGregor .com

Precisely why I don't blog much ...

... because I should be working on getting proposals out and answering phone calls and emails. But, here I am instead. Wondering why on earth I threw my opinions out there in there in the first place.

First, let me say I realize we need to change our blog setup so people realize when it's me, SANDRA writing. I'll work on that.  For now, you get to read my words in orange.

Regarding yesterday's blog, I began posting comment replies but they got too long, so consider this a group reply.

I want to clarify that expressing whether or not I approve of TN's decision was not the intention of my post yesterday.  Who really cares whether I approve or not? I certainly wasn't trying to shake my finger at Michael Hyatt. Frankly, I don't know the man, but I do respect his position, and I'm smart enough to know (and humble enough to admit) that he's someone with a lot of influence who has the capacity to make or break careers. Or at least bend them.

My pointing out "what's behind the curtain" had more to do with my frustration about the whole farm team analogy. It just didn't fly for me.

Thomas Nelson's decision to add self publishing to their product line was their choice to make. It's a business model which is different from what's always been done. Does the fact that Nelson and other traditional publishers are stepping into this ring threaten the status quo? Absolutely. Do I respect their courage to at least step out and try something new? Yes, as a matter of fact I do. Am I jumping up and down in excitement about it? Uh, no.

I'm sure this decision wasn't considered lightly. Business ideas are sometimes conceived in a vacuum, but rarely carried out in one. My guess is that the seed of this idea started with a simple question like "how can we continue to move forward and mitigate risk?" For Nelson, this was their answer. Is it the right answer? That's the million dollar question, isn't it?

I realize from Thomas Nelson's perspective, this new division simply offers authors a new choice to make in regard to how they pursue publication. It's a service in exchange for a fee. And it's not like TN is going to go out and hang authors upside down to shake spare change from their pockets. Whether authors choose to buy this service is their choice.

Still, it's needs to be said that good authors work and sacrifice long and hard on their product before presenting it for consideration and this move doesn't make the road to publishing shorter or easier for them. It makes it steeper, bumpier, and harder to navigate.

For most authors, traditional publishing is still the end goal. In CBA, Thomas Nelson has long been considered the brass ring. The stamp of approval. Validation and evidence that an author has earned their way to the top and is deserving of respect as a Christian author. And I believe that respect is something which should be earned. Not available for purchase.

Face it, there is the potential for folks to let their desire to see their name on the spine of a Thomas Nelson book override their motivation to do the work. And, conversely, there is also the potential for TN to let their desire to make money override their motivation to hold to their standards. I'm not accusing. I'm just saying this looks like it has the potential to be a slippery slope and this concerns me.

Obviously I wasn't asked for my opinion on any of this. And as I was talking with another agent this morning, we agreed that it's easy to criticize and point fingers at other people's solutions without offering suggestions or alternatives, so here's mine:

Want a farm team? Go for it. I think it's a great idea. Start a new non-advance, higher royalty division - and perhaps use the Westbow imprint for just such a thing. This would still raise the commitment required from authors without lowering the bar. Help authors who are willing to commit to making the product a success, then spend the money that would have gone into an advance to help the author with marketing. I've done a couple deals this way with other publishers recently, and I have to say, I feel fine about it. There was nothing in it for me upfront as an agent, but in both cases, they are projects I believe have the capacity to not only make money down the road, but also make a difference in the long run.

Just an idea. Conceived in bit of a vacuum, I'll admit. Feel free to discuss. I've got work to do.

Sandra

So ... Self-Publishing is the New Black?

Sandra here.

Who doesn't see much point of getting into topics just to stir debate. Not afraid of conflict. I just don't see the point of adding another voice to what is destined to become an overcrowded, noisy room.

Okay. So, Thomas Nelson is starting a new self-publishing line. That's interesting. A sign of the times, perhaps. Something to watch and a new topic to discuss at writing conferences, debate on blogs, squawk about with retailers. We'll see. I have my opinions about it, but frankly, it's not my business. Literally. It's not my decision to make. Last time I checked, I didn't own Thomas Nelson.

I respect Michael Hyatt and the other fine folks at Thomas Nelson. And I'm positive they (and their shareholders and/or corporate suits) all put much thought and consideration into this decision. My guess is that they're expecting flack and have steeled themselves (and have pre-written press releases waiting) in preparation for it.

However. Ahem ... pitching this new venture as a "farm team" to authors? Excuse me?

That is a giant, sticky, wad of hooey, man.

Look. I know the lines between what once worked and what will work in the future are blurring and that we all need to do what we can to A) keep publishing viable and relevant and B) figure out a way to keep the pipeline of books strong so we can keep spreading the word and doing what we love. 

Call me cynical, but I'm thinking the motivation behind this decision might have something to do with the fact that opportunities to profit from books are growing slimmer by the second. Or is that just coincidence?

Thing is, there really is nothing new under the sun.

Back in the late eighties when I worked in the marketing department of a major CBA publisher, it was standard fare to gasp when authors held out for larger advances or asked that the publisher spend a few dollars on advertising, tours, publicity. "Greedy authors. Don't they understand Christian publishing is a ministry?"

Then the wall fell. Big hair started giving way to grunge. And agents began coming onto the Christian publishing scene (another gasp).  Soon after, the veil of ministry this and other Christian publishers were hiding behind was pulled away and Christian authors were suddenly encouraged to get over it and begin thinking of writing as a business. Hmmm...

At its core, publishing is a business whose end product happens to be the packaging of free expression and creative thought.

It is a capitalistic, money making venture. With some exceptions (Gideon comes to mind) it always has been. Still is. And there's nothing wrong with that.

Thomas Nelson's attempt to legitimize their venture into self-publishing by pitching it as place for them to cultivate and find professional authors is, at best, a stretch. Do they really need to start their own self-publishing venture to do this when there are others who this exact thing already, and do it well?  Go ahead and do it -- just call it what it is.

I don't follow baseball, but (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) aren't farm teams peopled by amateurs looking to work their way up the ranks to the pros? And aren't they typically supported (at least minimally) by the parent clubs or ticket sales? I'll admit I'm not exactly sure how farm teams pay for the gas to get from game to game, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't come out of the pockets of players. And are they expected to invest their own money in order to dress just like the big boys so fans and spectators can't tell the difference? I don't think so.

Seems to me that calling this self-publishing venture a "farm team" is an attempt to hide behind a curtain again, and mask the reality that this is a business venture and a way to mitigate risk. Trouble with that is those of us who have been around awhile can see that there's money behind that curtain.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Sandra

Good News from a Trade Show

That was the heading of yesterday's email from PW Daily, a daily digested version of Publishers Weekly.

What? Good news? In publishing?

I'll admit that as I (Sandra, here) prepared for and traveled to ICRS this year, I was hoping for a more upbeat experience than last year's episode of gloom and doom.  Not expecting, necessarily, but hoping.

I was relieved to find that my optimism was rewarded. Attendance on the floor seemed up from last year despite a report from PW of a 20% drop in attendance from 2008. Maybe it was because there were fewer exhibitors. Or maybe it was because the overall exhibit space was smaller. But, it at least gave the impression of increased activity and attendance. And at events such as this, impressions matter.

I recall a dismal scene from the show floor last year when I rounded a corner and saw one of CBA's most noted authors sitting at his signing table ... doodling.  I happened upon this scene at time when I was wandering the floor, seriously praying about the future of CBA, and wondering what had compelled me to enter the industry just as a tsunami was threatening to hit.

A good sign this year, though, was that signings seemed steady and well attended. There were lots of lines, a few even snaking around the aisle-ways. One of my authors was there at the invitation of her publisher and they had to pull books from the shelves to meet demand. One house intentionally held four signings at one time; one on each corner of their booth - an example of the kind of new thinking which probably helped in giving the show a more upbeat and positive feeling.

Most industry professionals I talked with sounded authentically hopeful about the show's survival - even in spite of lower retail customers in attendance. The handful of sales people I spoke with reported they were taking modest but steady orders. Lean times call for modest expectations, and I think, for the most part, this is how publishers approached the show. They sent fewer staff, kept their expenses down, brought less product with them in the first place.

As far as meetings with editors (always my favorite part of any industry event) most expressed that publishing spots are still fewer and pushed out, and that decisions are still taking longer to make with far more deliberation than ever before. But, a majority of the folks I met with said they are actively looking for fresh approaches to perennial topics and strong voices in fiction to lead the way by taking our message of hope and invitation into the general readership.

This is strictly from my gut (and I've not had breakfast yet at the time of writing this, so consider yourselves warned) but I think the tide of CBA is shifting away from being dominated by the Bible Belt sentiment of what's acceptable material for Christians and what's not.  (Please read carefully that I said Bible Belt, not Bible!)

This was perhaps forecasted by my agreement with a June 4th Newsweek article by Lisa Miller in which she noted "evangelical Christians are less willing to identify themselves as a coherent group embodying one set of values."

If that's the way the tide is turning, I'm glad I dived in. Hooray and Hallelujah! Change is coming and I, for one, think embracing it instead of fighting it always brings good news!

Where will we be in five years?

I was at a conference recently where they asked people in the industry to talk about trends they're seeing in publishing. Specifically, they wanted to know what changes we should expect to see in the next five years. My list...

1. You will own an electronic reader. It may be a Kindle (the Amazon.com tool that works on cell phone service, so that books show up on your clipboard-like device like a text message), or the Sony Reader (a better device to use, in my opinion, since it feels more like a book and you can easily download your own files without sending them off or paying Amazon to do it), or some cheap $99 knock-off device that we'll start seeing in the next year. But you WILL own one. Why? No more forty-pound sack of books to carry around. A thousand books on one device. If you get bored with one, you can skip to another. No losing a book ever again, since the companies who sold you the title will replace it for free. You remember when you thought you could get by without a cell phone, iPod, DVD player, Blackberry, GPS, and laptop? Well, you now own most of those. You'll soon recognize the value of an electronic reader and you'll buy one.

2. The web will replace your book show and your book catalog. The big book shows are dying -- too expensive and not enough return to keep going. They'll be replaced with smarter, more cost-effective company events or web-based specialty events. And publishers will soon buy into the green movement by doing away with printed book catalogs and going to web-based catalogs that are always accessible and easy to correct and update.

3. Publishers will soon scrap their print-based semi-annual royalty statements to authors and agents, and will replace them with electronic statements. This makes too much sense. It could be done today, frankly, if publishers wanted to spend the time to make the change. The only thing keeping your publishing house from moving to an email version of your royalty statement is that it doesn't want to be bothered changing the system in light of all the other financial struggles it is facing. But within five years, they'll all have gone to electronic royalty statements.

4. The concept of convergence will jump from newspapers and magazines to books. We live in an image-driven culture, so it's only natural that the convergence of words and images will come to the world of books. On an electronic book screen, we can expect interactive features, downloadable extras, video clips, author interviews, and all sorts of other images to enhance the text. (Think of the newspapers they sell in the Harry Potter movies, with moving images and dynamic graphics -- that's exactly the type of book we'll see in the near future.)

5. A new role will be established within publishing houses. All those images and special features will mean a new role must be established to create and manage the convergence of words and images. We can expect "creative content editors" to become a regular part of every editorial staff. These indviduals will have experience with words as well as images and the interactive aspects marketing.

6. The new products will mean new companies. It may sound crazy in this lousy economic time to predict a spate of new companies being formed... but I think the new technology will make it imperative. One thing that has always been clear is that new breakthroughs in technology (and I believe the electronic reader is a wonderful breakthrough) means new companies to create cutting-edge applications. I think we'll see new companies rise up to compete with the big New York houses when it comes to e-books.

7. A writing superstar will self-publish a book (and make a killing). Again, I think this is inevitable. There is too much money at stake for a celebrity writer to leave it on the table by remaining with a regular royalty-paying publisher. I believe one of the big writers of our era will decide to self-publish, either digitally or in a print-on-demand format, and he or she will sell a boatload of books. (For those not in the know, you can make MORE money at self-publishing, if you have the ability to sell your book. The reason most self-pubbed authors lose money is because they don't know how to sell their book.)

8. Our culture's fascination with short messages on Facebook and Twitter will mean a renewed interest in short stories. Okay, this may not happen... but I can dream. Short stories are my favorite form of literature, and they are almost impossible to sell in book form these days. But perhaps the next generations' interest in all things short will mean a renewed interest in short stories.

9. The next big fight for will be over electronic rights. We're already seeing that with the Google lawsuit, and the fight over Amazon's plan to have all Kindle books include an audio function. Doesn't an author lose a sale if audio rights are wrapped up in a print book? If a magazine publishes your article, rights revert back to you when the copy comes off store shelves -- but if an e-zine keeps your article in its files forever, when do those rights return? If a book publisher keeps a digital version of your book available, will that constitute the book being "in print"? (For the record, I think this will be resolved by using a combination of term agreements and sales thresholds -- i.e., your book will be considered 'in print' so long as the publisher sells 500 digital copies per calendar year.)

10. Publishers and authors will learn to balance the public's desire for content with its demand for all things free. Right now it's easy to get yourself in print -- any moron can start a blog. The hard part is getting paid for your writing. Consumers seem to think that anything coming over the internet should be free. This attitude is helping to kill newspapers, who have moved to the web but found it impossible to make money while doing so. Book publishers are finding this same attitude, and it has the potential to damage book sales (just as Napster and its evil children ruined the music business). But they'll work it out, and find a way to provide content that is free while still selling the words that provides a living for writers. I don't know what that solution will be yet, but I know it will come because necessity will require it. We're a culture that needs (and values) its writers, so we'll find a way to help them make a living.

My thoughts on five years from now. Check back in 2014 and tell me if I was right.

Online Rights and Other Things We're Seeing Now...

Dana wrote to ask, "Was ICRS really as bad as everyone is making it out to be? Were numbers down all that much? I recieve emails from CBA (the sponsoring organization), and they shared some pretty good news to their membership."

You know, I don't take any pleasure in predicting the demise of CBA. I've been a member for years, am supportive of its goals, and have established some wonderful memories at the annual book show. But no matter how you spin it, the numbers are terrible. Ten years ago the convention drew just under 15,000 participants. This year the number was half that. And the number of "industry professionals" who attended the show was half the number of what it was ten years ago. The floor space is obviously shrinking (and word is many publishers may pull out or significantly reduce their floor space even more next year). So, yes, it's a significant downward trend. No matter how they try to spin it, the show is in deep trouble (in my humble opinion).

Sheri asked, "From walking the floor at ICRS, can you tell us about some of the book trends you're seeing?"

We've continued to see growth in fiction, and particularly in fiction sub-categories. (So while we used to just see "romance," we're now seeing "historical romance," "contemporary romance," "romantic suspense," "romance with characters named Fiona," etc.) We're also seeing more emergent writers. More reformed writers. More spriritual journey writers. More charismatic writers. More writers with professional platforms (MD's writing on health, or investment guys writing on finances, for example). More "social justice" and "green" books. More audio titles. A continuing movement toward celebrity. The beginnings of narrative nonfiction titles. Fewer books from pastors. Few homeschooling books. Very few education titles. Few men's books. Few humor writers. Few Bible studies. Almost no CBA gift books. More small presses starting up (hoo-ray!). And a handful of companies (Moody is one, Cook is another) who have completely re-made themselves.

Barb wrote to ask, "You mentioned a Kindle... can you describe that for me?"

Yikes! Everybody should know about the Amazon Kindle and the Sony E-reader. Think of them as an electronic book -- about the size of a hardcover book, and the text of your favorite book can be sent to it through the air. You can then call up the book on the screen (they both have good screens) and read it the way you would a regular book. You toggle the side of the Kindle to "turn the page." A Kindle will hold about 200 books in its memory, and if you ever lose a book somehow, Amazon will re-send it to you for free. (And, to correct errors I've made in the past, Amazon no longer sells all their e-books for $9.99 -- some are more expensive. AND you can now email yourself Word documents, so you can read your friend's work in progress on your Kindle.) They cost $349 and rely on cell phone technology, so you don't have to be in a wifi hotspot. Oh, and you can get the NY Times or Wall Street Journal sent to you every morning on your Kindle. The Sony product is a bit less money, has more bells and whistles, but somehow doesn't have the same pinache (and yet it's the Sony that publishers are purchasing for their editors). We're not at a place where everyone has an electronic reader yet (they don't do graphics, and that's a drawback), but this is the wave of the future.

Tracy wanted to know about the  movement toward selling electronic books: "I'm not sure I understand something... There is no paper involved, no ink, no binding, no shipping. In addition, marketing will be less about store displays and more about internet ads and pop-ups that piggyback on similar audiences, so this should lower the cost of moving books. But they're paying less money? If authors are squeezed by lower margins, won't that descrease the number of writers? What do you predict will happen -- higher prices? fewer authors? greater sales?" 

There's a debate going on between publishers and agents about the royalties that should be paid to authors on e-books. I'm of the opinion the royalty should be higher, since there are no hard costs (sure, there is editing and interior design, AND the publisher has to set up a delivery system to send the books...but it still is cheaper than ink/paper/binding). However, some publishers want to view e-rights as a subsidiary right, so they could conceivably sell it cheaply to Amazon and split all proceeds 50/50 with the author. So, unlike regular print royalties that have been agreed upon by nearly everyone, you can find one publisher paying 15% of net for e-rights, another paying 15% of retail, another paying 50% of whatever they receive. Right now it's all over the map... but right now the money doesn't amount to much. Give it a few years. Once our kids all have Kindles, and are all downloading their books, this will generate real money -- and by then, we'll have it figured out.

So YES, I predict higher prices for e-books. But NO, I don't predict fewer authors -- the potential for people to do e-books should increase opportunities for writers, not decrease them. And I'd certainly hope it leads to greater sales, as the Electronic Generation begins reading books and not just Facebook.

Cheryl wrote and asked, "Can authors include previously published stories from magazines and web sites in a book they are submitting to a publisher? In other words, can they use previously published stories in a new book?"

That will depend on the contract you signed for your article, Cheryl. If you give a magazine one-time rights, as soon as the next issue of the magazine comes out, you are normally free to re-sell your original article to someone else (though you'll probably want to tweak it). But if you did an article for an e-zine and sold it to them on a work-for-hire basis, you may have signed over all rights to that story. Check your contract. With most ephemeral or periodical literature, ownership remains with the author, so in those cases you would indeed be free to re-use your piece in a new book.

Ashley asked, "What makes an agent (like, say, Chip MacGregor) who is so passionate about books decide to be an agent instead of writing books?"

I'm good at being an agent. I like the work. It feels like a better fit for me than being a full-time author. The fact is, I love books and words, and this job allows me to work with them. Can't imagine having any more fun than this. But I have, in fact, written books. (Make sure to check out "The Y2K Family Survival Guide" and other great titles!)

By the way, there are two websites you really must visit... First, check out the new ezine ChristianFictionOnline to see some great stories and advice on writing fiction for the CBA market. Second, make sure to stop by www.StuffChristiansLike.net -- a hilarious sendup of the church, written by a guy who has spent his life as one of us. The BEST new site I've seen in years.

The Leftovers from ICRS

There are a handful of leftover things happening in the world of publishing that should be mentioned. In no particular order...

1. The Christy Salon: In case you didn't hear, at this years' Christy Awards (given for the best religious fiction), they featured a "salon" -- a discussion of experienced people talking about the history and future of Christian novels. It was an interesting discussion, with Dave Lambert of Simon & Schuster, Karen Ball of B&H, and Carol Johnson of Bethany House (who was also given a lifetime achievement award at this dinner for her 20+ years in the industry). The most interesting part of the salon was the talk about the books that have shaped contemporary Christian fiction. Once you got past Grace Livingston Hill and Catherine Marshall (the Christies are named for her novel), the panel suggested these books have had the most influence: Jeanette Oke's Love Comes Softly, Frank Peretti's This Present Darkness, Bodie Thoene's Gates of Zion, Jan Karon's Mitford books, Francine Rivers' Redeeming Love, and Jerry Jenkins' Left Behind. It was pointed out that each of these books broke the mold. Each was different from the current popular reads, and each had a publisher who believed in them and worked to promote them. Interesting to think about in our "me-too" world of writing.

2. The Man We All Must Thank: I was glad to hear people in several venues say nice things about Jerry Jenkins. The fact is, we all know Left Behind doesn't qualify as "great literature," but Jerry's books hit at the right time, changed Christian fiction, and opened up the rest of the world to the whole notion of religious books. Borders, Books-a-Million, and Barnes & Noble used to have one shelf devoted to religious fiction. Now they have an entire aisle. The New York Times used to not count Christian books when compiling their bestseller list -- but they couldn't ignore the millions of copies Left Behind sold. I was working as an agent at Alive Communications at the time, and we represented that series (don't get me wrong -- I had nothing to do with the success... Rick Christian helped make this one successful; I just worked there). I got to see it all happen first hand. Suddenly Christian fiction was a real part of the publishing world. The Left Behind series largely led to Time-Warner, Simon & Schuster, Penguin, and Random House moving into the CBA. It opened up doors for hundreds of writers. So while someone can criticize the books, we all should send a note of thanks to the guy most responsible for kicking the door open. Thanks, Jerry.

3. More Good People: As long as I'm mentioning my old stomping grounds at Alive, there's a great story with another agent who works there... About six years ago, I remember Lee Hough (pronounced "huff") walking into one of our weekly meetings and telling us he'd found this great book. It was the true story of a white art dealer in Houston who had befriended an African-American homeless guy who had formerly lived as a modern-day slave. The story was good, but it needed a great writer on the project. We brought in Lynn Vincent, who is a reporter with World Magazine, and she crafted a strong proposal. Lee worked on that project for years. Everybody rejected it. It didn't fit any genre. It was a personal story. It was sort of an odd memoir. The whole thing was too difficult for anyone to get excited about. But Lee, to his credit, believed in the book and kept badgering publishers about it. Really, it's remarkable, since an agent is only paid when he or she actually sells something -- so Lee was hammering away at this book that nobody wanted, and he kept at it when it was clear he wasn't going to make a dime on it. Finally, after several years of trying, he convinced Thomas Nelson to take a crack at it. I tell this story because the August bestseller list just came out, and guess who is #3? Same Kind of Different As Me: A Modern-Day Slave, An International Art Dealer, and the Unlikely Woman who Bound Them Together. A tribute to hard work. Way to go, Lee.

4. The Kindle: Amazon reported that a significant portion of ALL their sales are now digital downloads for the Kindle (their electronic book reader). I asked around at the book show, and I'd say people were split at to which they liked better -- the Kindle (a better screen and easier to use) or the Sony e-Reader (has more applications and doesn't feel as cheap). But the amazing thing is that everybody in the industry seems to be getting one. And that's leading to a problem... What will publishers pay authors for digitally downloaded books? Amazon is currently selling all Kindle titles at $9.99, which doesn't exactly leave a lot of money for authors. At the same time, there's almost no cost after the intial investment -- once the book is edited and designed, there is no ink, paper, or binding costs with a digital book. There's no shipping. There's no packaging. They press a button and POOF -- it's in your reader using cel-phone technology. Mark my words: This is shaping up to be the next big fight between agents and publishers. Authors have to make a living. Publishers have to turn a profit. With books at ten bucks a pop, there's not much wiggle room.

5. The Kindle Oops: One strange thing happened with NavPress... they discovered that all their books were suddenly available on the Kindle, even though they hadn't negotiated those rights yet. Oops. Turns out the folks at Amazon had accidentally taken everything that offered the "search inside" feature and made it available for the e-reader. Back to the negotiation table!

6. The Future of ICRS: is looking grim. Word is that several publishers have already decided to pull out of next summer's show, opting instead to participate in the ECPA book show in Dallas next March. ICRS is too expensive, doesn't lead to enough sales, and doesn't get the media it used to. I can't see most of the publishing houses choosing to attend both the ECPA and the ICRS. I would assume the Christian Book Awards (formerly the "Gold Medallion") which is sponsored by ECPA will move to the new show. And there's a rumor that the Chi Libris group (for novelists) will be aligning with the new show. That would probably mean the Christy Awards would move as well. So... what's left for ICRS? There are permanent gift shows for the Jesus Junk types to display at. I'm still predicting they'll go one more year before they close it down, but it's not looking good. (And I take no joy in saying that. I've loved attending the CBA convention for the past 15 years.) The toughest choices will be faced by the mid-level publishers who have deep roots in CBA -- do they stay with the organization out of loyalty? Will enough independent bookstore owners show up at the new show to make it worth their while to attend? A hard call. This could hurt some of the smaller publishing houses.

7. Sad News: On July 21, novelist Kristy Dykes passed away. She had been diagnosed with a brain tumor last fall, and had written her way through her disease by turning her blog into a public journal of the experience. Her words touched many lives over the past few months as she's walked through it. Our prayers are with her husband Milton and her family.

It'll be back to publishing questions next time -- if there's something you'd like to ask about books and publishing, send it along and we'll try to answer it.

Back from the Front Lines...

Just got back from a week at ICRS (the International Christian Retailing Show) in Orlando. Some notes...

1. Attendance: In a word, awful. One insider told me this is the lowest attendance they've had at a CBA convention since the 1980's. There were only about 7000 people at the show. Ouch.

2. The Bad News: There wasn't much buzz at the show. Zondervan introduced an interesting idea (more on that later), but the whole event had a bit of a gloomy atmosphere. As you know, Thomas Nelson, the largest Christian publisher on the planet, pulled out of the show. That helped create a sinking ship mentality. My guess is that more publishers are going to follow their lead (more on THAT later as well). In addition, they're going to have to cut the whole thing back. NOBODY was there on Thursday -- you could have whacked golf balls down the aisles and not hit anyone. So, overall, a bit of a negative vibe at this convention.

3. The Good News: On the flip side, book publishing is alive and well. Even though there was a bit of a cloud over the show, a Bowker study revealed that there were more Christian books produced and sold last year than ever before. I figure that's good news to everyone who works in the industry. And I'd argue there were some excellent new books unveiled. (I loved getting a copy of Baker's UNCHRISTIAN, and Jossey-Bass had new books from both Doug Pagitt and Tony Jones.) So we can all stop whining. There's plenty of good things going on.

4. The Floor: It was nice to have all the book publishers close to each other on the floor again. And many of the art-and-trinket sellers weren't there -- in fact, I'd say they took up half the space they used to inhabit. Real shrinkage among the non-book types.

5. The Crazies: Many of the nutty things failed to show at this year's CBA. No one selling vials of ash from Sodom and Gomorrah. No Armor of God Pajamas, no Gospel Golf Balls, no Praise Panties. A bit of a downer for those of us who sit up half the night chatting about the ups and downs of the show. (Last year's event featured at least four companies selling footwear with bible verses on them, PLUS the "Standing On The Promises" folks with their scripture-infused insoles. None of that sort of truly stupid crud this year.) Yeah, there were Testa-mints ("Saving the World One Piece at a Time") and the occasional weirdness (one company makes wristbands out of dirt from Israel -- so you could be "wearing the actual dirt Jesus walked on!"), but overall the kitschy side of CBA was in the same funk that everyone else experienced.

6. The Worst Thing I Saw: One artist showed up with a painting the size of your dining room table, featuring a junkie kneeling on his dingy apartment floor and shoving a syringe of dope into... the arm of Jesus. Nope, I'm not kidding. Christ was there behind the junkie, offering his arm, and the guy was ready to plunge the drugs into the Lord. Truly the most tasteless bit of art I've seen in ages. Who would ever buy this? And who would hang it up? They had tried to sanctify the whole mess with the verse about "whoever has done this to the least of these has done this to me" -- a sort of mind-numbingly bad interpretation of Scripture. I told my buddy Steve Laube (a fellow agent) about it and he didn't believe me, so I walked him over in order to let him get the full effect. Steve immediately grabbed his camera phone so he could remember the moment. Oh -- and I now have my own name for it: Heroin Jesus. (Thanks to the boys from The Ooze for offering that bit of insight.)

7. True Story: While walking around making notes on trends in book ideas and book covers, I was approached by someone who works closely with CBA. "Hey Chip," he says to me, "I see in your blog that you covered Thomas Nelson pulling out of the show. I just want you to know that when they did that, we immediately sold their space to someone else." He said this with a straight face. I mean, we're in the midst of a drastically shrinking show, and we happened to be standing right next to a big open space that had obviously not sold to a vendor -- just a vacant piece of floor, covered by an industrial blue rug. I really wanted to say, "To who? A carpet company?" but I didn't. I just smiled and nodded. Eeek.

8. Negative Signs: Many publishers had fewer people, fewer books on display, and smaller booths at the show. I heard a lot of sales types complain about the lack of sales they're generating -- and if the convention doesn't generate income, it's all but dead. Want to know why? There was almost a total lack of media this year. Very few radio and TV opportunities for authors. You go there to sell books, and if you can't sell them, at leasts you can promote them. If you can't do either, you stop going.

9. Positive Signs: There were several smaller book publishing companies with booths. I had a nice chat with the folks at Ampelon Publishing. And it was nice to see Moody Press take a giant leap forward. Here's a company that, a few years ago, we didn't think would survive. The leadership there has put together a good team, has a clear plan, and is releasing some excellent books. Always nice to see someone grow and begin to succeed in the face of doom and gloom.

10. Buzz: Lots of people talking about Susan Meissner's upcoming book, The Shape of Mercy, which got a starred review in Publisher's Weekly. Several folks said to me it might have been the best review for religious novel they've ever seen in PW. Just not many times you see the word "lifechanging" used in a book review.

11. Symtio: The folks at Zondervan are going to be moving into more digital products. They introduced "Symtio," which is not an Italian version of Sim City. It's basically a gift card that people can buy at their local Christian store, then take home and use it to download digital books onto their iPods or laptops. Z claimed they'd have 300 of their titles ready to be downloaded (by audio or text) this fall. 

12. Rain: And not to sound cranky, but isn't Florida "the Sunshine State"? Good grief. They should change their slogan to, "Bring Your Umbrella!"

13. People: The best part of the convention is seeing friends, and I saw a ton of them. Great people working in publishing. I had great meetings with people from every publishing house, saw a number of authors I represent -- even scammed an incredible meal from Tony Collins, the publisher at Britain's Lion-Hudson.

14. The Future: So what happens next? My guess is that several publishers will pull out of ICRS next summer. It's expensive, and the show just doesn't pay for itself in sales for most larger publishers. Just can't see how they can continue justifying the expense...and that makes me wonder if the convention can survive. I know there's been talk of them trying to get placed together at BEA, but will independent Christian booksellers show up at BEA? I have my doubts. They may be more likely to head to the Christian Book Expo in Dallas next March, sponsored by the ECPA (Evangelical Christian Publishers Association). This is a show aimed more at consumers than retailers, but word is most CBA publishers will show up (and encourage their accounts to show up). Thomas Nelson has already said they will participate, and all the publishers I spoke with made it sound as though this could be the event that allows everyone to re-focus on books. That will end up hurting some of the smaller suppliers who really get their only national exposure through the show floor -- they'll have to turn to one of the permanent gift showcases, or work with sales reps, or do more direct calling themselves. When the history of Christian publishing is written one day, "changes in distribution" will be the lead topic for this era. It's re-shaping everything.

15. Introductions: The best part of ICRS this year was that I got to introduce everyone to Sandra Bishop, my new colleague at MacGregor Literary. She's incredibly sharp, knows the industry, and has made her living at writing for 15 years. It's nice to finally have somebody with some brains working for my company -- leaving me to be nothing more than the pretty corporate face, apparently. (Um... we're still tweaking this plan. Check back for frequent updates.)

Back to publishing questions. Let me know what you'd like to ask about writing and publishing.

Chip

From my Death Bed...

Okay, so maybe I'm not exactly on my death bed... but I caught this really lousy flu that has kept me in bed with a sore throat, aches, and a fever the last few days. Thought I'd emerge from my Robitusson-induced haze and answer a handful of questions from people.

Janet wrote to ask, "With the advent of e-book readers, how will this affect authors and the money they are paid? Will there be a bunch of ripple effects from all the electronic gadgets?"

Amazon's Kindle and Sony's e-reader are developing fans, and they are certainly beginning to sell some units. If you're not aware, Kindle is a book-shaped reader with a great, easy-to-read screen that receives book text via cel phone technology. You can purchase a book from Amazon and they'll send it to your Kindle wherever you are (using the same technology as text messaging) for ten bucks. A Kindle can hold about 200 titles before the memory is full. Last week Amazon cut the price from $399 to $349 -- still too high, but moving in the right direction. I like the product a lot, though I think it's a bit too plasticky. The Sony e-reader doesn't have nearly as nice of a reading screen, but costs a hundred bucks less and you can send Word document to it -- so many New York editors have been given them, in order to read manuscripts without having to lug around a bag full of heavy books. I've thought about getting one just so I could be reading the manuscripts of the authors I represent before they are sent into the publishers.

There are a lot of things to like about the future of these products, though neither are perfect. (The Kindle doesn't do graphics; neither is doing textbooks yet.) Amazon reported yesterday that they now have 125,000 books available to send to your Kindle, and [get ready to look doubtful] that more than 6% of the overall sales of those available titles were sold to Kindle users. (That's according to a report in Barron's yesterday.)  All that is interesting, but to this point their impact on the market has been negligible.

Publishers are still debating how to pay an author for electronic books. Some want to pay a flat royalty like any other book (which is questionable at best, since the publisher has no ink/paper/binding costs). Others want to pay a higher royalty than a regular book. And still others want to pay a fairly high percentage of any money that comes in (I've seen it as low as 15%, as high as 50%). So... yes, there could be interesting ripples. It's still shaking out, but theoretically an author should earn more from electronic sales than from a standard ink-and-paper book. Yet to this point... it hasn't added up to enough money to matter.

A quick question from Jim: "What factors into a decision on whether or not a book should be published as a hardcover?"

Though most authors think of the main factor being prestige (i.e., "If they put me in HC, I must be a big shot!"), the factor that most plays into the decision is money. A hardcover book will cost $1.50 to $3 more to produce than a trade paper...but the cover price will rise $7 to $10. So the return on the investment in hardcover is greater. Simply put, "We make more money per book when we sell hardcover books." BUT we'll also sell fewer books, since the price tag will keep many buyers from purchasing until it comes out in paper. Sometimes releasing a book in hardcover will kill it, since it won't sell and therefore won't leave open a trade paper following. And some genres just sell better in trade paper than they do in hardcover -- many "Christian Living" titles just seem to die on the vine when offered in HC. So the publishing team looks at the numbers and makes some projections -- If we project 10,000 sales in hardcover, but 35,000 in trade paper, is it worth releasing this book in HC first? Or should we just go straight to TP? I've been part of that discussion numerous times, and the numbers basically drive the decision.

Tiffany wants to know, "Is there a way an author can make his or her work more marketable for foreign rights? I'm fluent in French and would like to push publication in French-speaking countries. Should I create an entire marketing plan for francophonic countries? And do publishers simultaneously release in two languages?"

Oui, eet eez certainly possible to make money doing translation work, but writing exclusively for a French audience would probably mean you'd need to explore a French language publisher. A good agent should help an author try to make money by selling sub-rights and foreign rights. (Something I don't see agents doing regularly.) A good publisher will do the same thing, and the larger publishing houses have Special Rights sales people who specialize in getting their books published in other countries and languages. However, I'm not sure how helpful it would be to actually pitch a French language book to an American publisher. It's nice that you might be able to do a French version... but they're not in the market of creating and selling French books. As they say in France, Passe moi le pomme de terre! (I think that means, "We sell American books to Americans," but my French is a bit rusty.)

Carol wrote and said, "In a recent discussion with a publisher about a nonfiction book proposal, he asked me, 'Just how big do you think this will be?' I wasn't prepared to answer him. In fact, I have only the simplest notion of how I'd obtain such information. I can track similar titles, but different writing styles, different platforms, the cover, the marketing of the book, and a million other elements could influence that. What could I have said?"

I don't think I've ever heard that question, but I think your words here are pretty good. You're right -- the overall success or failure of your book rests on a number of factors, and you've named some of the biggest. But perhaps your publisher was looking to gauge your enthusiasm -- do you see this as being your life's work? Have audiences responded with enthusiasm when you've presented this material at conferences? Is there a groundswell of support for this type of message at this time? I have occasionally asked authors the "what are you writing these days" question, and had them reply with, "What do you need?" That's a weak answer, in my opinion, since it means I'm most likely going to see a book without much passion (and maybe without much research). There's nothing wrong with writing to a topic, or writing to a need, but I at least want to know the author is enthusiastic about it, and knows enough about the topic to see potential success.

One other point: You mentioned referencing other titles. That's a great idea. In fact, being able to point to similar books that have been successful generally offers a good reminder that people are looking for a solution to whatever problem you're writing about. So this is the time to offer that short speech about how this topic has proven popular with readers, and you are the person to write it, and you have the solution everyone is looking for, and the writing is fabulous.

Rhonda wrote to me with this: "I have one publisher who looked at my proposal and said he was interested in my manuscript. He asked me to revise my sample chapters. But now a second publisher has called to make me an offer. What do I do? I think I'm actually more interested in the publisher who has asked for the rewrite, but I don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth."

Here's what I would do, Rhonda: "Hello, Mr. Publisher? I received your very nice note suggesting revisions to my chapter. In fact, I've already started doing those revisions, and I'm excited about the possiblity of working with you. But something has come up... I just received an offer from another publisher. In fact, it's a very good offer, and I'm tempted... but you've always been my first choice to work with. I can beg off for a week or so, but would it be possible for you to have your team talk about my proposal and give me a response a bit sooner than we'd expected? In the meantime, I'll be making those revisions you requested. Thanks very much."

And I'd offer you one caveat as well -- make sure you have a reason for wanting to work with that first publisher. As I've said on this blog numerous times, organizational enthusiasm really counts in book publishing. If that second publisher sees great potential in you, and is enthusiastic about your writing, they may work harder to make you successful than a publisher who isn't quite sure you've got what it takes. Give it some thought.

If you've got a publishing question, send it in. I'll try to get to it before I die.

A Fresh Look

Well, I'm now 50. Older and wiser (hopefully). Please let me offer one short rumination...

Recently I made some comments about Mike Hyatt, the Thomas Nelson decisions, and the direction of CBA. That caused a couple people to write and ask me, "Why are you down on CBA?"

My response: "I'm not. Not at all." But their questions got me to thinking some things...

First, I love Christian books. My life has been changed by books I've read -- I can point to some titles (The Ragamuffin Gospel, In the Name of Jesus, etc) and say with all honesty, "My life was never the same after having read that book." It's the ministry a book can have in the life of a person that keeps me excited about words. When I read, I learn, and that changes me. And I'm one of those ignorant types who needs to learn a lot, since I've got a lot of changing to do.

Second, I love CBA and the things associated with it -- authors, publishers, booksellers. Honest. I've been part of CBA for more than 20 years. I feel as though I know it inside and out -- both its strengths and its weaknesses. I will sometimes poke fun at the stupid stuff (Armor of God pajamas and Standing on the Promises Insoles, for example), but let's face it -- those things are funny. Still, I don't want anyone reading this blog and coming away from it thinking that I'm not supportive of great Christian books. I always want to remember the people I work with are trying to change the world for good.

Third, this is the Golden Age of Christian publishing. There have never been so many good books, done with such quality, and at such an affordable price. Some day we will all look back on this time as an incredibly rich season of Christian writing. I dare say there are more good writers, more training opportunities for those writers, and certainly more outlets for those writers (thanks to the web) than ever before. That's a wonderful fact.

Fourth, I've been remiss in talking about the GOOD part of CBA. The fine writers. The skilled editors who spend their lives just trying to locate and foster talent. The publishers who risk large quantities of money and time to produce life-changing books. The sales teams that spend hours reading the books on their lists in order to best talk about them with people.

Sure, there are things I don't like. I'd prefer a CBA bookstore to be an actual bookstore, rather than a store that sells trinkets and kitschy art. I think there's abundant evidence that Christian bookstores began their decline when they started turning their focus away from books. We live in a specialized society, and I'm one of those who believes "Christian books" is enough of a niche to do well. But...well, I've had plenty of bookstore owners say that, in fact, they can't make it on their book margins -- they need the t-shirts and necklaces to pay the bills.

So I'm trying to take a fresh look. I was really touched by the note a former colleague posted on The Writers View (a web resource for Christian authors). The individual admitted having fallen into a trap of using cynicism, ego, sweeping generalities, and over-the-top snarkiness to criticize CBA. And all that cynical crud began to have a corrosive effect on the spirit. So, despite normally being a positive, sunny type, the author admitted acting like a teenager -- using attitude and a faux sophistication to criticize and act cool as a way of impressing people. And it was stupid -- the author needed to repent and be appreciative of all the good things in life; all the good things God has wrought.

Well... I'm there. That's me to a T. I've been overly critical and snarky. I've exaggerated the facts. I even got to the point where I found myself rolling my eyes when somebody told me to "not let unwholesome words come out of your mouth, but only that which is helpful for buiding others up." That's right -- I was rolling my eyes at Scripture. Yikes. (In case those words are new to you, Saint Paul wrote them in the First Century. It's pretty good advice; you've got to admit.) It seems like there was this image of me (snarky, negative, curt) that I didn't like at all. But maybe it was accurate.

That's when I realized things had gotten off track. I'm normally a positive person, and I don't know why I felt a need to act like such a freakin' know-it-all. I'm not negative -- my wife will tell you I'm the eternal optimist. I've been forgiven much, and I guess hitting 50 made me remember all the blessings God has given me, and that I need to appreciate His grace anew, and be humbled by the fact that I'm getting much better than I deserve. And stop ragging on the parts of CBA I don't like. Because there's a lot of great things happening in publishing. It's not just a matter of "speaking the truth" in this life (another thing I've had issues with), but "speaking the truth in love." So I very much appreciated reading the post from that author (as well as the honesty it took to say those things). It moved me to take some time and reflect. And make sure I change.

So this is me -- with a fresh look. Humbled over my mistakes. Sorry for my out-and-out bad choices. But ready to move forward.

And if this is sounding a bit too personal for you, here's the fact you really need to know: I love books. I love writing. I particularly like books that have the potential to change people. And while I'm not sure there are many books that can change the world, I believe very much that words can help stir small changes in the lives of individuals. And it's essential for me to believe that books change lives on an intimate level, because my own life has been changed by them.

Here's to books that make a difference.

As the Page Turns

Lots going on in publishing these days...

First, Borders may or may not be in trouble. It would seem incredible that the nation's second largest bookseller, in the midst of a growth phase with smaller "boutique" bookstores going up in malls, would suddenly be facing a financial crisis. But they say it's caused by the tightening credit rules, debt, and the cost of money. They had to refinance a huge debt load at a very high rate -- never a good sign for a business. And rumor has it Barnes & Noble is sniffing around, hoping to try and snap them up on the cheap. Nobody in publishing wants that to happen. Competition is always good for business, and B&N would have very little competition in the brick-and-mortar book business if they were to purchase Borders.

Actually, I'm not sure the government would allow it. Borders and B&N combined account for 55% of all retail book sales in this country, and surely the government would see that consumer prices would be bound to rise if the two companies merged. However, if you take into account Amazon and other online booksellers, B&N could claim the two chains only amount to about a third of all book sales...so perhaps a permissive federal regulator would allow it to happen. But I hope not. Having two companies creates competition, which is always a good thing.

Second, HarperCollins made big news with the announcement they were creating a new imprint that would rely on very different business practices than most publishers. Robert Miller, the longtime boss at Hyperion, has moved to HC to head up the new venture. The imprint will offer lower-priced books (word is they're trying to keep hardcovers at $20), won't pay advances to authors (instead relying on a profit-sharing plan), won't buy display space in stores (instead relying on their online marketing efforts), and will sell books outright to retailers (rather than allowing unsold books to be returned by stores for a credit). It's ambitious. And it's a risk. Publishers tried the "no return" policy in the 80's and had to abandon it largely because bookstores refused to stock their titles. But publishers feel a need to try something different -- they're being squeezed by the increasing demands of authors for advances that equal a living wage, the overall flat sales of books, the lower margins offered by big-box retailers like Wal-Mart, and the increasing cost of paper and printing. The internet has brought about significant changes in the distribution of books -- now the publishers are trying to determine how that will play out in terms of the production and sale of their titles. This is a fascinating effort on the part of HarperCollins.

Third, people in the industry are seeing new publishing companies get started... making a lot of folks wonder what the trouble is with the established houses. The thinking goes like this: "If people are starting new publishing businesses, they must see the potential to make money with books... so why would the established book publishers and book sellers not be making money?" It's an excellent question, and the answer probably lies in the transition from a brick-based economy to an ether-based economy. The new startup companies are planning to build their organizations largely through internet sales and marketing, they're using profit-sharing plans with authors, and they're trying to get ahead of the curve with things like distribution and niche-marketing. Summerside Press, a new company formed by some former employees at Barbour, is creating a line of romance novels based on American cities with interesting names. They offer a fair contract for their market, are establishing a marketing and sales channel, and have a plan that is based on an economy in the new millennium. Similarly, I'm told former CBA editor Jeff Gerke is setting up a line of speculative novels based on a profit-sharing plan. We're going to see more publishing companies like this get started in the near future -- and history tells us that some of them are going to break out and establish themselves in the market. That's good news for authors.

Fourth, it was revealed that several of the New York houses have distributed Sony Readers (the digital book created by Sony) to their editors. Upon hearing it, I knew it made perfect sense -- instead of lugging home a bag of books, they'll just have to carry one book-sized Reader. Of course, nobody could have been more dismayed at the news than Jeff Bezos, the head man at Amazon. His Kindle e-book reader is a better product, but costs $100 more than the Sony, AND they've had problems fulfilling orders (some customers claim they've waited six weeks to receive a Kindle).

I much prefer the Kindle to the Sony Reader, but I've seen Sony Blu-Ray defeat standard DVDs, and Sony Beta technology become the standard in the film industry... so something tells me they're making a push to establish their product as the #1 e-book reader. I'm on record as saying we haven't seen the perfect e-reader yet (the Kindle feels plasticky and doesn't do graphics; the Sony screen is hard to read and doesn't have the features I'd want). I'll bet the folks at Amazon wish they'd thought to send free Kindles to all the publishers. If you want to get readers on your side, convince the editors first.

Fifth, there's a hue and cry going up among those that self-publish. Amazon, the nation's largest e-tailer of books, announced that print-on-demand titles must now be created through their own POD service, BookSurge. You can look at this one of two ways: it's either a business being a business, or it's a huge power grab by a company bent on dominating the little guy. Let's say you're a speaker, who uses POD books to support your organization with back-of-the-room sales. Normally you'd shop around to find the best balance of quality printing with reasonable prices, then you'd let everyone know the book is available at Amazon. No more. If you're going to sell your book through Amazon, you're going to have to use their BookSurge division, which means paying their established prices. (And things can't be terribly chummy between the folks at Amazon and the people at Ingram, the mega-supplier who has worked with numerous POD authors through their LightningSource program. I wonder how this will play out.) The reason this is important to you is that it reminds us that the best thing for authors is to have multiple vendors and alternatives -- not to have everything run through one company.

I'll get back to writing and questions next time, but I thought it was important to note the significant changes going on in our industry. Would love to know what you think.