The Future of CBA

People are clearly worried about the world of publishing these days, and today's questions reflect that...

Marcus wrote to ask, "What are the opportunities in the CBA market right now?"

This is a tough publishing market, reflecting a tough economy. For the past five years, the fastest growing segment in all of publishing has been Christian fiction, but that's slowed considerably lately. My guess is that we'll still see some growth in fiction, but it will be moving much more slowly as the various houses shake out what's working and who is selling. People want an escape, so historical romances and over-the-top suspense will continue to do well. Because of the economy, I think we can expect to see some more practical books take the lead -- money management, job searches, getting by in tough times, etc. The whole emergent discussion is also growing, as the church rethinks its theology in a postmodern world. That means I expect to see a surge in practical Christian living books again soon -- titles that focus on going deeper, living like Christ, and making an impact on the world. People need help coping with things like a less extravagant lifestyle. Two other areas we're starting to see as growth categories in CBA nonfiction are books on social justice and living a green lifestyle. In terms of overall growth, I think we'll see more romance, more spiritual journey books, certainly more e-books, more celebrity-driven books. 

Denise wants to know, "How has the CBA market changed over the course of the last year or two?"

Fiction has grown like crazy over the past four or five years, of course. CBA used to be a bunch of nonfiction books and a couple novels. Now it's dominated by novels. As I've said, that has been slowing, but I think it's still a growth category overall as things begin to shake out. Keep in mind that the financials in CBA are tough. Thomas Nelson has cut more than 120 people since last fall. Several other CBA houses have cut staff and reorganized. A couple have been in a cash crunch and been late with payments. This is a brutal economy right now (thank you, Mr Bush... I hope the screen door didn't hit you on the butt on your way out) for all publishers, and CBA is not exempt. 

Another change you need to understand about CBA is that it has become much more a part of the bookselling mainstream. Zondervan is owned by HarperCollins, Waterbrook by Random House, Howard by Simon & Schuster, FaithWords by Hachette. The religious book market used to be its own separate world, with its own publishing houses and bookstores. CBA still exists as its own entity, but it's very much part of the publishing mainstream these days. An example: You used to find very few CBA books at Barnes & Noble or Borders. Now that's one of their money-making areas. So while it's more integrated into the rest of the publishing world, we have to keep in mind that the Christian publishing arena is huge -- a book that hits in CBA can sell as many copies as a book that hits in the general market. 

Joey asked, "Is CBA going to survive?"

I think CBA as an organization is in deep trouble. Independent bookstores are shutting down (in both CBA and ABA), the CBA publishers aren't happy, and the big summer convention is in trouble -- they've already closed the winter CBA show, and the summer International Christian Retailing Show has been in steep decline. Christian publishers banded together through ECPA and created their own publishing event, the Christian Book Expo, which was held in Dallas last month. In my opinion it was a good idea, but it bombed with the public. They're going to try again next year in a better venue, and hopefully with more marketing to get the public in the door. I'd like to see it succeed and be replicated in other cities, but it could fail again, leading to publishers having their own mini-shows. (Thomas Nelson did this last year. I could see some of the other publishers doing the same thing in their home cities, or perhaps several small-to-medium-sized publishers banding together to have a visiting book show somewhere.)  

Another change I see happening is the shrinking mid-list of publishers, and the movement toward e-books and, eventually, POD titles. B&N purchased an e-book retailer, Zondervan started Symtio last summer (think of the way you download music onto your ipod through your computer), and we're going to see more of that type of bookselling. I think the delivery of books is changing considerably, and we're fast-approaching the time where many books are only offered POD. That means a shrinking publishing list -- something we're already seeing with Thomas Nelson and Cook announcing their cuts a few months back. This is still the Golden Age of Christian Publishing, in my view, but it's going to change and re-shape because of the technology, the choices, and the sophistication of consumers. Will CBA survive? Maybe, but it will be completely different from the CBA I grew up in. 

Lisa wrote this: "Do you think the advent of e-books and the movement to publish things online will help new authors get published easier and faster?"

Though everyone seems to be going doom and gloom on publishing, I think there's good news for writers: There have never been more opportunities for writers. I mean that. Every business has a website, and they all need content. Every organization has a website, and they not only want to share their history, but offer tips and wisdom, connecting with readers on a daily basis. We used to worry about our kids not reading, now they seem to read all the time (um... when they're not playing video games). The movement of reading has been away from the printed page and toward an electronic page, but that has opened up the world of reading to many. So there is an abundance of opportunities, they just may not be in the areas where writers have traditionally sought to publish. 

So yes -- I think e-books and online publishing will help authors get published much faster, and perhaps more easily... though you still have to be good to get published. The one thing that I don't see changing? It will still be exceedingly tough to make a living at writing. But when has it ever been easy to make a living at art? Talk to a singer, a painter, a sculptor, a dancer, a violinist. Making a living with your art has always been tough, and will continue to be. Online publishing will certainly offer more opportunities, but to make money at it will still require the writer to be good. That doubtless says something about learning the craft and the business, I think. 

One other note: Candace wrote to me to say thanks for connecting her with Christian Library International. They take your leftover Christian books and distribute them in prisons and other places. She had published a book with WinePress for a speaking tour, sold a bunch, had a thousand leftover copies, and donated them to CLI, who was happy to receive them. Again, it's a worthwhile place to consider when you're changing covers or doing an updated edition of a book, and you need to reduce inventory of your old title. Just thought I'd let you know that people actually read and do some of the stuff I mention on this blog. 

Comments

[M.L. Eqatin]

Chip, I'm confused. Why do refer to POD as reducing the number of titles available? Thanks to POD, I have been able to order new copies of many obscure books, some over a century old, that were long out of print. The POD catalog available through Ingram is now over six million titles.
One of Britain's largest bookstores just installed an Espresso Book machine last week (which may be the first commercial one, unless you count the one at the New York Public Library) making all the POD titles online instantly available right on site to their consumers.
How long before there's a POD machine in your local coffee shop?

[chip]

Um... what? I didn't say anything about POD's reducing the number of titles. But, yes, I think the Espresso Book Machine is coming soon to a Barnes & Noble near you.

[Lea Schizas]

Chip, although the ease of publication for many writers has now opened up with smaller publishing houses and the popularity of ebooks finally getting noticed, the problem I still see as editor with a publishing house is that writers do not understand the need or amount of work necesary to ascertain the sales of their books continues to grow.

I spend numerous time each week hosting other writers, writing articles to submit to databanks, making my presence known in online groups besides my releases, writing, contacting places for signings/workshops, and organizing my own book blog tours. The first part is to help brand and build my name and the latter is to promote my work.

I've heard writers do a one week stint of promo and then wait for the sales to begin. It doesn't happen like that. It's a continuous and out of the box stream of building your platform and branding and promoting and marketing that needs to be done constantly. It's tiring and time consuming but if I don't do it (and I don't have the money for a publicist) who will do it? That wasn't a question but an ending to this post. GRIN

[Janet]

Question for a future blogpost: in a recent PW article, Michael (or was it Joseph?) Karp listed 12 changes he thought were needed in publishing. It was fascinating reading but I bridled at the suggestion that authors should be expected to plow part of their advances back into publicity. It seems wrong-headed to expect authors, who for the most part can not afford to quit their dayjobs, and yet who are handled by full-time editors, agents, publicists, to bear the financial burden of book promotion. Why pick on the financially weakest link in the chain? I'm all for publishers supporting and encouraging and funding an author's efforts to publicize, but putting the onus on them seems abusive. Am I being hopelessly naive? Or is that essentially the status quo anyway?

[Margo Carmichael]

Thanks for posting the timely information, Chip.

As for the screen door--make it a double-wide. ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfGWxqsKFmY

God bless~

[Margo Carmichael]

(One for the other guy. LOL)

[M.L. Eqatin]

Re my comment above -- sorry, I translated your comment on 'shrinking list' into 'fewer titles'. Did you mean 'fewer titles from publishers'? Confused over here!

[Sandi]

Chip, thanks for the helpful information. Very interesting stuff.

As for screen doors, I would have voted for Ron Paul if his name was on the ballet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w9j_t4AaH0

[Sandi]

Oh, and speaking of "morsels," this one's for Chip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsJHqstPuNo

[Christina Berry]

People read this thing?? I just leave random comments without any idea of what was covered in the post. :-)

[Sharon A Lavy]

Thank you for the information. And the continuing education. = )

[Stevie Rey]

Ah, the old starving artist cliche. It really is true isn't it, Chip? With online publishing it was fairly easy to publish The Hillbilly Bible. The hard part is (and continues to be) marketing. It seems you put in about twelve hours of marketing to sell one book at the beginning. I know there is a tipping point, but getting to it has been one of the hardest journeys of my life...builds character I guess, huh?

[genny]

Thanks for all the great information, as always. CLI sounds like a great organization.